A question for our British members.

[Anonymous]

What are you're feelings towards the current crisis between the U.K. and Iran concerning the British marines that were captured?

[Anonymous]

The general mood has been that we're behind our troops, of course.  But none of us want to force another war, and given the last one that's exactly what it feels like we're doing.  We don't have a strong Foreign Policy minister anymore, which is making it even worse, there's a lot of mistrust of our government right now.

[Ash]

The general mood has been that we're behind our troops, of course.... We don't have a strong Foreign Policy... there's a lot of mistrust of our government right now.

Congratulations Destyn; you've just become an honorary American Citizen.

[NoCry]

my own view; being ex army (albeit a reservist) is that it makes me sick for any soldier whatever uniform they are wearing to be paraded in front of a tv camera and forced to read something (which even if they did believe should not be made to do) written for them by some idiotic twat.

Personally I think they should be released without further ado and Iran should apologise. I am not some lunatic who wants or likes law but these same people are seeking to justify to the world community that they can be trusted with nuclear power! Rant over!!! answer to your question venlar - angry and frustrated.

[NoCry]

erm, for "law" read "war" i of course love law!

[Anonymous]

So what do you think the likelihood of an escalation is given how unpredictable the Iranian regime is? I Think you guys might have a better idea of the situation since I'm sure it's getting far more coverage across the pond than here in the states. If the captives aren't released... or god forbid actually harmed will Britain respond with military action? ie. Shock and Awe part 2. The way I see it if the situation escalates any further the free world is going to have a real problem on there hands. Not to say they don't already. Iran is now Iraq or Afghanistan. They are a powerful military power in the middle east. Now I'm not saying it would be a real challenge for either of our military. I'm just saying we wouldn't be able to march through the country in record time. Ultimately the regime would be defeated and the war won. However that's not the problem. The real problem is what we are seeing in Iraq and Afghanistan. What happens after the war.

Something that's been looming in my mind for quite some time now is how much credibility can we give to a regime who calls for the destruction of another nation(Israel) and has their President claiming he's the Islamic messiah. This is not a regime that should ever have nuclear weapons on those points alone. Add in how they are behaving now and if they do ever get nuclear weapons it's safe to say we would have a nightmare scenario on our hands.

I know that the free world is trying their hardest to solve these issues with diplomacy. Especially since the severe fuck up in Iraq. I fear this may not be enough though. Maniacal leaders like the Grand Ayatolla Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad never listen to reason, nor to they care for the wellfare of their people. Look at N. Korea for example... his people suffer while Kim Jong Ill lives in luxury. I just pray that out of fear of repeating past mistakes we don't sit on our hands while these madmen fulfill whatever plans they have for the rest of the world. ie. Iran wanting an Islamic empire and N. Korea wanting to continue their spread of communism.

We a living in a truly troubled time. The world has become a powder keg and we're all firing off fireworks as threats. Eventually one of those fireworks is going to misfire and set off a much more dangerous situation. It's a sad thought when you realize that world affairs are dangerously close to erupting into a third world war.

[Anonymous]

I'm not sure I agree.

I think that Islam as nation and as a religion is grossly misunderstood, and of the many Iranians I know, they just aren't bad people - in fact they're some of the most gentle people I deal with; but as with many Middle Eastern states they suffer from a poor image by the Western Media.

When things like this kick off I always ask: how much of what we're seeing is being influenced by our own political leaders?  I don't trust Blair or Bush to be impartial in these things and we've seen in the past (with tragic results) that they can't always tell the truth - WMDs, anyone?  Iran has made some bad choices in trying to keep up a nuclear arsenal to match that of, say, Pakistan (who incidentally we're not attacking for some reason) but I don't think it's aggressive posturing - I think it's defensive because they don't want to become another Iraq by association.  And who are we in the "free" world to say that their way of life is wrong - are we positing on our religious beliefs?  Does that make us any better than Saddam, the difference being we killed his people instead of our own?  Even then by degrees we did kill our own by sending them in with poor equipment and no planning.

Where do we draw the line?  Is Russia starting to look at us funny lately?  Is South Korea a little too much like North Korea for our liking?  We should be as cautious about the information we're fed as we are of the images being shown their side.  I don't believe the British government is innocent to any degree, and I wouldn't be surprised if the troops - knowingly or not - had been sent on a spying mission but I certainly don't want anyone - British or Iranian to die as a result of it.  We went through all this in the eighties and look where it got us.

If you're interested in seeing some other (more cynical) views of the situation I'd suggest reading some back issues of TFT: http://thefridayproject.co.uk/

[Anonymous]

I think you might of slightly misunderstood me. By no means am I placing any blame on the people of these nations or even the religion of Islam. It is their leadership that is the problem. As I said before their leaders are not behaving in a rational or even civilized manner. The people of Iran are good people. Many of them are dissatisfied with their government. How can you blame them when they face countless human rights abuses on a daily basis? The harshest to receive these abuses are women. If an unmarried woman fraternizes with a man or engages in so called "immoral" behavior they are arrested by the morality police. They usually serve a short sentence but during so they are tortured and raped. If a woman engages premarital sex, adultery or is raped(unless they have three witnesses that were there and say they were raped... gotta love fundamentalist Islamic law.) then they are publicly executed.

Given the track records or the Iranian government and the British government personally I give more credibility to the latter. This current situation is no different. The British come out with GPS coords that show that the marines were in Iraqi waters and the Iranians acted illegally in this situation. The Iranian's released GPS coords and when reviewed... it showed... the marines were in Iraqi waters. Later the Iranian government re released GPS coords which showed the marines in Iranian waters. This has just worked to further diminish their credibility.

Another thing I've noticed is people comparing this to the Gulf of Tonkin Incident. There is no way you can compare the two. I don't believe this is purposely being used and overblown by the British government to justify a war with Iran. Not only can the British government afford yet another war but neither can her allies. Lest our countries re institute a draft. I also don't see any circumstance in which the British government will goto war over Iran holding the marines. The only way war would be possible is if those marines are harmed or killed and I highly doubt Iran is that stupid or suicidal.

[Subb]

The end of the world me thinks.

[Da6onet]

The end of the world me thinks.

Best ever! LMAO!

On a more serious note. The world will not erupt into a third world war simply because there aren't enough nations that are against the US that could put up a fight like Ze Germans did. That said, one soldier lost in any conflict is not what any sane person wants.

Dagonet's take on the current situation:
James Baker, I respect the man, but I don't agree with his "lets be friends with all enemies" views. Otherwise he has some very insightful talking points. I can't find a recent speech he gave that aired on C-Span, but when I do I'll post it.

Iran will give back the UK soldiers but they will not apologize.
A low level civil war will continue in Iraq until the US redeploys and declares Iraq can deal with it's own problems, at which point it will turn into a situation akin to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In Afghanistan, you will always have an al-Qaeda  presence disrupting any sort of nationwide cohesiveness.
The deep seeded hated in Korea will never lift. North Korea may eventually be forced to give into American demands, but not because of us, but because of China. However, none of us will ever see a united Korean peninsula.
In Russia, you will end up with a corrupt government and declining population until a true democratic coup happens or until a polarizing figurehead like Hitler inspires the people to blame their problems on someone else (then a third world war would happen)
In Venezuela, Chavez will lose power quickly and some pussy will take over the government, South America will never be a threat unless they start hosting our enemies missiles like Cuba did.
Cuba on the other hand will always be a bastard child of communism until the world is ready for an "Earth Coalition" (so not in our lifetimes)
In places like India-Pakistan, Israel, Somalia (well most of Africa for that matter), etc. There will be unrest for a long long long long time and will never have peace and prosperity in any form that we could recognize today.

So where is the happy ending?
I am no visionary. If I had to guess, as technology becomes accessible to people in an oppressed state, such as Iran, curiosity will prevail and people will start to see the rest of the world, good and bad. There are different ways to interpret information, but if you have no information to start with, you're SOL, like any woman in the middle east is.

Old guard China is desperately trying to keep it's youth in line before they figure out that the "American way" gets them money and toys and they start rejecting the totalitarianism in favor of playing Xbox live against some angst ridden kid from Ohio or some 10 year old brat from Australia.

I envision a day when some 20 year old intern of Ahmadinejad sends a text message to a buddy of his saying "this guy needs to wear deodorant or something, he smells like shit!" (Oh wait, that already happened!)

Shit if we started dropping NuvaRings from the sky over the middle east it'd be ten times deadlier than a nuke.

At any rate, remember that everyone that reads these boards, has a choice. When Bush and Ahmadinejad are in the ground, you'll be the leaders. You'll be the people running the world. Would you choose to oppress your women, ignore your constituents, never say you're sorry, never relinquish control or power? The answers to those questions seem easy now, but answer them in twenty years and see if your convictions are truly as strong as you say they are.

[Anonymous]

In todays world nations don't need extraordinary military to put up a fight against the free world. This is evident in the terrorist activities going on globally. But there is one nation that is strong enough to put up a fight against the U.S. much like Nazi Germany... China. Although at the moment the U.S. and China are on relatively stable grounds that could change very easily. The Chinese government wants complete control of Taiwan. Taiwan wants independence from China. The United States has sworn to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. You can see how that situation could get ugly real fast.

Russia
You've talked about a varied of issues and I'll try to cover a few. I agree with you're first three points on Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. I slightly disagree with you're thoughts on N. Korea. I don't see any circumstance in which Kim Jong Ill would give in to American demands. If he does... it's most likely in a similar fashion to his negotiations with President Clinton.(says one thing... does another.) Unless there is reform and a change in leadership I don't see that situation improving.

Russia isn't becoming a corrupt government. It is a corrupt government. President Putin has already consolidated power from local governments to increase his hold on the country. He has become closer and closer to a dictator as time goes on. Putin is a polarizing figure like Hitler. He has shifted the blame of his countries problems on foreigners. To add salt in the wound his approval rating is somewhere in the range of 85-86 percent last time I checked. Sooner or later he will take the Russian Federation into a fascist style government similar to Nazi Germany. It's only a matter of time.

Venezuela has been severely underestimated in my opinion. Chevez's popularity is skyrocketing amongst his people and even the citizens of other South American nations. Again he is a polarizing figurehead who has shifted the blame of their problems onto the United States. Add in the fact that Chevez talks about uniting South American into on communist regime and you can have a serious problem on our hands. Keep in mind he is not alone. Venezuela is close allies with Iran and N. Korea. These three are a dangerous alliance even to the United States.