Author Topic: Analyst says one million subscribers are attainable for TOR (Read 1801 times)

Ragnarok · « **on:** April 25, 2011, 07:37:00 pm »

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BioWare and Electronic Arts' Star Wars: The Old Republic is poised to attract over 1 million subscribers in its first 12 months of availability, according to Janco analyst Mike Hickey.

"We suspect a willingness from investors to believe [500,000] to 1 million Star Wars MMO subscribers is an attainable target," Hickey said in an investor note on Monday. The game is slated for a 2011 release.

EA CEO John Riccitiello said earlier this year, "At half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing we would write home about. Anything north of a million subscribers, it's a very profitable business."

Hickey said he expects initial sales figures for the game to "far exceed" the 500,000 to 1 million range, but "game development must be perfectly orchestrated" in order to sustain the subscriber base.

The analyst noted EA-published Warhammer Online, developed by subsidiary Mythic and released in 2008, sold well off the blocks with 1.2 million in sales. But the subscriber base quickly dropped to a more sustainable subscriber base of 300,000.

Hickey said at just over 1 million subscribers, Star Wars: The Old Republic could generate $161.9 million in total sales and $35 million in profits during its first 12 months of release.

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Paitryn · « **Reply #1 on:** April 25, 2011, 08:13:52 pm »

well with 1.5 million people waiting just for beta alone, and figure in that I personally know a few people that havent even signed up for forums or beta that want to play the game, you can imagine the game has a draw of 3 million potential players over the first 12 months.

its really going to depend on how good the release is going to be to determine if it will have a good hold on the market. if they can hold even the 1 million over the 12 month timeframe, the market eyes will definately look at TOR as being the next WoW. WoW had a pretty big draw, but ultimately it was the fact that it was so popular that its subscriber numbers were the draw by itself.

Tbone · « **Reply #2 on:** April 26, 2011, 11:43:52 am »

MMOs are an extremely volatile market. While I have faith the game will be successful, "analysts" don't really mean much in whether an MMO is going to be successful.

"Analysts" also have Donald Trump leading the polls for potential Republican presidential nominee........